{
  "unit": "USD million except per-share and ratios",
  "valuation_date": "2026-10-13",
  "forecast_calendar": "Year 1: 2026-10-14 to 2027-10-13; subsequent years are successive twelve-month periods. End-year discounting.",
  "tax": 0.21,
  "method": "10-year FCFF DCF; recurring SBC remains an economic EBIT expense; no future recurring SBC dilution added a second time. No interest deducted in FCFF; WACC discounts enterprise cash flow.",
  "lease_treatment": "Operating lease rent included in EBIT; operating lease liabilities not separately subtracted. Capital equipment financing remains in debt.",
  "scenarios": [
    {
      "label": "谨慎",
      "rows": [
        {
          "year": 1,
          "revenue": 8300,
          "ebit_margin": 0.3,
          "ebit": 2490.0,
          "tax": 522.8999999999999,
          "nopat": 1967.1000000000001,
          "net_reinvestment": 249.0,
          "fcff": 1718.1000000000001,
          "pv": 1554.8416289592762
        },
        {
          "year": 2,
          "revenue": 9130.0,
          "ebit_margin": 0.3,
          "ebit": 2739.0,
          "tax": 575.19,
          "nopat": 2163.81,
          "net_reinvestment": 273.9,
          "fcff": 1889.9099999999999,
          "pv": 1547.8061464752973
        },
        {
          "year": 3,
          "revenue": 9951.7,
          "ebit_margin": 0.3,
          "ebit": 2985.51,
          "tax": 626.9571000000001,
          "nopat": 2358.5529,
          "net_reinvestment": 298.551,
          "fcff": 2060.0019,
          "pv": 1526.7952033104746
        },
        {
          "year": 4,
          "revenue": 10747.836000000001,
          "ebit_margin": 0.3,
          "ebit": 3224.3508,
          "tax": 677.113668,
          "nopat": 2547.237132,
          "net_reinvestment": 322.43508,
          "fcff": 2224.802052,
          "pv": 1492.2523254075224
        },
        {
          "year": 5,
          "revenue": 11500.184520000003,
          "ebit_margin": 0.3,
          "ebit": 3450.0553560000008,
          "tax": 724.5116247599999,
          "nopat": 2725.543731240001,
          "net_reinvestment": 345.0055356000001,
          "fcff": 2380.5381956400006,
          "pv": 1444.9864146480086
        },
        {
          "year": 6,
          "revenue": 12201.695775720002,
          "ebit_margin": 0.3,
          "ebit": 3660.5087327160004,
          "tax": 768.7068338703598,
          "nopat": 2891.8018988456406,
          "net_reinvestment": 341.037396931374,
          "fcff": 2550.7645019142665,
          "pv": 1401.1889260107912
        },
        {
          "year": 7,
          "revenue": 12836.183956057443,
          "ebit_margin": 0.3,
          "ebit": 3850.8551868172326,
          "tax": 808.6795892316186,
          "nopat": 3042.175597585614,
          "net_reinvestment": 332.45716446188777,
          "fcff": 2709.7184331237263,
          "pv": 1347.0639679371936
        },
        {
          "year": 8,
          "revenue": 13388.139866167912,
          "ebit_margin": 0.3,
          "ebit": 4016.4419598503737,
          "tax": 843.4528115685785,
          "nopat": 3172.989148281795,
          "net_reinvestment": 319.3071358081047,
          "fcff": 2853.6820124736905,
          "pv": 1283.8295084817203
        },
        {
          "year": 9,
          "revenue": 13843.336621617622,
          "ebit_margin": 0.3,
          "ebit": 4153.000986485286,
          "tax": 872.1302071619098,
          "nopat": 3280.8707793233766,
          "net_reinvestment": 301.78473835126414,
          "fcff": 2979.0860409721126,
          "pv": 1212.8931529022234
        },
        {
          "year": 10,
          "revenue": 14189.420037158061,
          "ebit_margin": 0.3,
          "ebit": 4256.826011147418,
          "tax": 893.9334623409577,
          "nopat": 3362.8925488064606,
          "net_reinvestment": 280.2410457338717,
          "fcff": 3082.6515030725886,
          "pv": 1135.799439034753
        }
      ],
      "terminal_value": 39496.47238311754,
      "terminal_pv": 14552.430312632774,
      "enterprise_value": 28499.88702580003,
      "equity_bridge": 3968.7,
      "equity_value": 32468.587025800032,
      "per_share": 44.259251670937886,
      "terminal_share": 0.510613613992888,
      "required_exit_ev_sales": 18.394687774751883,
      "required_exit_ev_ebit": 61.315625915839604
    },
    {
      "label": "基准",
      "rows": [
        {
          "year": 1,
          "revenue": 8800,
          "ebit_margin": 0.33,
          "ebit": 2904.0,
          "tax": 609.8399999999997,
          "nopat": 2294.1600000000003,
          "net_reinvestment": 220.0,
          "fcff": 2074.1600000000003,
          "pv": 1894.2100456621008
        },
        {
          "year": 2,
          "revenue": 10384.0,
          "ebit_margin": 0.34,
          "ebit": 3530.5600000000004,
          "tax": 741.4175999999998,
          "nopat": 2789.1424000000006,
          "net_reinvestment": 259.6,
          "fcff": 2529.5424000000007,
          "pv": 2109.6661037092645
        },
        {
          "year": 3,
          "revenue": 12045.439999999999,
          "ebit_margin": 0.35,
          "ebit": 4215.9039999999995,
          "tax": 885.3398399999996,
          "nopat": 3330.56416,
          "net_reinvestment": 301.13599999999997,
          "fcff": 3029.42816,
          "pv": 2307.3756254963246
        },
        {
          "year": 4,
          "revenue": 13731.8016,
          "ebit_margin": 0.35,
          "ebit": 4806.13056,
          "tax": 1009.2874175999996,
          "nopat": 3796.8431424,
          "net_reinvestment": 343.29504000000003,
          "fcff": 3453.5481024,
          "pv": 2402.1992813386396
        },
        {
          "year": 5,
          "revenue": 15379.617792000003,
          "ebit_margin": 0.35,
          "ebit": 5382.866227200001,
          "tax": 1130.4019077120001,
          "nopat": 4252.464319488001,
          "net_reinvestment": 384.4904448000001,
          "fcff": 3867.9738746880007,
          "pv": 2457.044013789294
        },
        {
          "year": 6,
          "revenue": 16948.338806784006,
          "ebit_margin": 0.35,
          "ebit": 5931.918582374402,
          "tax": 1245.7029022986244,
          "nopat": 4686.2156800757775,
          "net_reinvestment": 419.30190207983634,
          "fcff": 4266.913777995941,
          "pv": 2475.3074677217974
        },
        {
          "year": 7,
          "revenue": 18371.999266553863,
          "ebit_margin": 0.35,
          "ebit": 6430.1997432938515,
          "tax": 1350.3419460917085,
          "nopat": 5079.857797202143,
          "net_reinvestment": 449.7465420452386,
          "fcff": 4630.111255156904,
          "pv": 2452.9720085974764
        },
        {
          "year": 8,
          "revenue": 19584.55121814642,
          "ebit_margin": 0.35,
          "ebit": 6854.592926351246,
          "tax": 1439.4645145337618,
          "nopat": 5415.128411817484,
          "net_reinvestment": 474.3378305035062,
          "fcff": 4940.790581313979,
          "pv": 2390.471074806644
        },
        {
          "year": 9,
          "revenue": 20524.60967661745,
          "ebit_margin": 0.35,
          "ebit": 7183.613386816107,
          "tax": 1508.5588112313826,
          "nopat": 5675.054575584724,
          "net_reinvestment": 491.76964785175403,
          "fcff": 5183.284927732971,
          "pv": 2290.2242574670245
        },
        {
          "year": 10,
          "revenue": 21140.34796691597,
          "ebit_margin": 0.35,
          "ebit": 7399.12178842059,
          "tax": 1553.8155755683238,
          "nopat": 5845.306212852266,
          "net_reinvestment": 501.0262468159085,
          "fcff": 5344.279966036358,
          "pv": 2156.4927842030675
        }
      ],
      "terminal_value": 84686.28253872997,
      "terminal_pv": 34172.11642660245,
      "enterprise_value": 57108.07908939409,
      "equity_bridge": 3968.7,
      "equity_value": 61076.779089394084,
      "per_share": 83.25624194301265,
      "terminal_share": 0.5983762187677711,
      "required_exit_ev_sales": 12.774613953898745,
      "required_exit_ev_ebit": 36.49889701113927
    },
    {
      "label": "乐观",
      "rows": [
        {
          "year": 1,
          "revenue": 9400,
          "ebit_margin": 0.35,
          "ebit": 3290.0,
          "tax": 690.9000000000001,
          "nopat": 2599.1,
          "net_reinvestment": 188.0,
          "fcff": 2411.1,
          "pv": 2222.21198156682
        },
        {
          "year": 2,
          "revenue": 11656.0,
          "ebit_margin": 0.37,
          "ebit": 4312.72,
          "tax": 905.6711999999998,
          "nopat": 3407.0488000000005,
          "net_reinvestment": 233.12,
          "fcff": 3173.9288000000006,
          "pv": 2696.1105990783417
        },
        {
          "year": 3,
          "revenue": 14220.32,
          "ebit_margin": 0.38,
          "ebit": 5403.7216,
          "tax": 1134.7815359999995,
          "nopat": 4268.940064,
          "net_reinvestment": 284.4064,
          "fcff": 3984.5336640000005,
          "pv": 3119.523674015467
        },
        {
          "year": 4,
          "revenue": 16779.9776,
          "ebit_margin": 0.39,
          "ebit": 6544.191263999999,
          "tax": 1374.28016544,
          "nopat": 5169.911098559999,
          "net_reinvestment": 335.59955199999996,
          "fcff": 4834.311546559999,
          "pv": 3488.314894137334
        },
        {
          "year": 5,
          "revenue": 19296.974239999996,
          "ebit_margin": 0.4,
          "ebit": 7718.789695999999,
          "tax": 1620.945836159999,
          "nopat": 6097.84385984,
          "net_reinvestment": 385.93948479999995,
          "fcff": 5711.90437504,
          "pv": 3798.6758628815473
        },
        {
          "year": 6,
          "revenue": 21747.689968479994,
          "ebit_margin": 0.4,
          "ebit": 8699.075987391998,
          "tax": 1826.8059573523196,
          "nopat": 6872.270030039678,
          "net_reinvestment": 468.2277650213743,
          "fcff": 6404.042265018304,
          "pv": 3925.326266263718
        },
        {
          "year": 7,
          "revenue": 24009.449725201914,
          "ebit_margin": 0.4,
          "ebit": 9603.779890080767,
          "tax": 2016.7937769169603,
          "nopat": 7586.986113163806,
          "net_reinvestment": 553.6579106631563,
          "fcff": 7033.32820250065,
          "pv": 3973.312435225672
        },
        {
          "year": 8,
          "revenue": 25954.215152943267,
          "ebit_margin": 0.4,
          "ebit": 10381.686061177308,
          "tax": 2180.1540728472337,
          "nopat": 8201.531988330074,
          "net_reinvestment": 638.2141506108751,
          "fcff": 7563.3178377192,
          "pv": 3937.988521471946
        },
        {
          "year": 9,
          "revenue": 27459.559631813976,
          "ebit_margin": 0.4,
          "ebit": 10983.82385272559,
          "tax": 2306.6030090723743,
          "nopat": 8677.220843653216,
          "net_reinvestment": 717.2436975829812,
          "fcff": 7959.977146070235,
          "pv": 3819.831248371255
        },
        {
          "year": 10,
          "revenue": 28420.644218927464,
          "ebit_margin": 0.4,
          "ebit": 11368.257687570986,
          "tax": 2387.334114389907,
          "nopat": 8980.923573181079,
          "net_reinvestment": 785.8308126533447,
          "fcff": 8195.092760527734,
          "pv": 3624.5700028558654
        }
      ],
      "terminal_value": 169638.42014292406,
      "terminal_pv": 75028.5990591164,
      "enterprise_value": 109634.46454498437,
      "equity_bridge": 3968.7,
      "equity_value": 113603.16454498436,
      "per_share": 154.85709452696887,
      "terminal_share": 0.6843523099283368,
      "required_exit_ev_sales": 9.401120019082937,
      "required_exit_ev_ebit": 23.50280004770734
    }
  ],
  "sensitivity": [
    {
      "wacc": 0.085,
      "g": 0.024999999999999998,
      "per_share": 93.49108015419
    },
    {
      "wacc": 0.085,
      "g": 0.03,
      "per_share": 98.67156424126034
    },
    {
      "wacc": 0.085,
      "g": 0.034999999999999996,
      "per_share": 104.87547653261815
    },
    {
      "wacc": 0.095,
      "g": 0.024999999999999998,
      "per_share": 79.81718985405324
    },
    {
      "wacc": 0.095,
      "g": 0.03,
      "per_share": 83.25624194301265
    },
    {
      "wacc": 0.095,
      "g": 0.034999999999999996,
      "per_share": 87.25867558922123
    },
    {
      "wacc": 0.105,
      "g": 0.024999999999999998,
      "per_share": 69.60977077529901
    },
    {
      "wacc": 0.105,
      "g": 0.03,
      "per_share": 71.99706080544532
    },
    {
      "wacc": 0.105,
      "g": 0.034999999999999996,
      "per_share": 74.71759861540264
    }
  ],
  "share_sensitivity": [
    {
      "extra_shares_pct": 0,
      "base_per_share": 83.25624194301265
    },
    {
      "extra_shares_pct": 0.03,
      "base_per_share": 80.83130285729384
    },
    {
      "extra_shares_pct": 0.1,
      "base_per_share": 75.68749267546605
    }
  ]
}
