{
  "unit": "USD million except per-share and ratios",
  "valuation_date": "2026-10-13",
  "forecast_calendar": "Year 1: 2026-10-14 to 2027-10-13; subsequent years are successive twelve-month periods. End-year discounting.",
  "tax": 0.21,
  "method": "10-year FCFF DCF; recurring SBC remains an economic EBIT expense; no future recurring SBC dilution added a second time. No interest deducted in FCFF; WACC discounts enterprise cash flow.",
  "lease_treatment": "Operating lease rent included in EBIT; operating lease liabilities not separately subtracted. Capital equipment financing remains in debt.",
  "scenarios": [
    {
      "label": "谨慎",
      "rows": [
        {
          "year": 1,
          "revenue": 6300,
          "ebit_margin": 0.02,
          "ebit": 126.0,
          "tax": 26.459999999999994,
          "nopat": 99.54,
          "net_reinvestment": 220.50000000000003,
          "fcff": -120.96000000000002,
          "pv": -108.48430493273544
        },
        {
          "year": 2,
          "revenue": 7560.0,
          "ebit_margin": 0.06,
          "ebit": 453.59999999999997,
          "tax": 95.25599999999997,
          "nopat": 358.344,
          "net_reinvestment": 264.6,
          "fcff": 93.74399999999997,
          "pv": 75.40388907880711
        },
        {
          "year": 3,
          "revenue": 8920.8,
          "ebit_margin": 0.1,
          "ebit": 892.0799999999999,
          "tax": 187.33679999999993,
          "nopat": 704.7432,
          "net_reinvestment": 312.228,
          "fcff": 392.5152,
          "pv": 283.1599827116784
        },
        {
          "year": 4,
          "revenue": 10348.127999999999,
          "ebit_margin": 0.14,
          "ebit": 1448.73792,
          "tax": 304.23496320000004,
          "nopat": 1144.5029568,
          "net_reinvestment": 362.18448,
          "fcff": 782.3184768,
          "pv": 506.15568373182543
        },
        {
          "year": 5,
          "revenue": 11796.86592,
          "ebit_margin": 0.18,
          "ebit": 2123.4358656,
          "tax": 445.92153177599994,
          "nopat": 1677.514333824,
          "net_reinvestment": 412.89030720000005,
          "fcff": 1264.624026624,
          "pv": 733.8158563776652
        },
        {
          "year": 6,
          "revenue": 13177.099232640001,
          "ebit_margin": 0.18,
          "ebit": 2371.8778618752,
          "tax": 498.094350993792,
          "nopat": 1873.783510881408,
          "net_reinvestment": 400.18850369527684,
          "fcff": 1473.5950071861312,
          "pv": 766.8826936224474
        },
        {
          "year": 7,
          "revenue": 14415.746560508162,
          "ebit_margin": 0.18,
          "ebit": 2594.834380891469,
          "tax": 544.9152199872083,
          "nopat": 2049.919160904261,
          "net_reinvestment": 371.06131646748014,
          "fcff": 1678.8578444367809,
          "pv": 783.5917457848749
        },
        {
          "year": 8,
          "revenue": 15439.26456630424,
          "ebit_margin": 0.18,
          "ebit": 2779.0676219347633,
          "tax": 583.6042006063003,
          "nopat": 2195.463421328463,
          "net_reinvestment": 325.9228749946825,
          "fcff": 1869.5405463337806,
          "pv": 782.5929828011843
        },
        {
          "year": 9,
          "revenue": 16180.349265486844,
          "ebit_margin": 0.18,
          "ebit": 2912.4628677876317,
          "tax": 611.6172022354026,
          "nopat": 2300.845665552229,
          "net_reinvestment": 266.65215589522325,
          "fcff": 2034.193509657006,
          "pv": 763.6923809630357
        },
        {
          "year": 10,
          "revenue": 16584.857997124014,
          "ebit_margin": 0.18,
          "ebit": 2985.2744394823226,
          "tax": 626.9076322912874,
          "nopat": 2358.366807191035,
          "net_reinvestment": 196.53056726591956,
          "fcff": 2161.8362399251155,
          "pv": 727.9040219278302
        }
      ],
      "terminal_value": 24620.91273248048,
      "terminal_pv": 8290.018027511398,
      "enterprise_value": 13604.732959578012,
      "equity_bridge": 4263.847,
      "equity_value": 17868.57995957801,
      "per_share": 17.452426841541456,
      "terminal_share": 0.6093480887969253,
      "required_exit_ev_sales": 38.22838482129442,
      "required_exit_ev_ebit": 212.3799156738579
    },
    {
      "label": "基准",
      "rows": [
        {
          "year": 1,
          "revenue": 6700,
          "ebit_margin": 0.06,
          "ebit": 402.0,
          "tax": 84.41999999999996,
          "nopat": 317.58000000000004,
          "net_reinvestment": 201.0,
          "fcff": 116.58000000000004,
          "pv": 105.98181818181821
        },
        {
          "year": 2,
          "revenue": 8576.0,
          "ebit_margin": 0.12,
          "ebit": 1029.12,
          "tax": 216.11519999999996,
          "nopat": 813.0047999999999,
          "net_reinvestment": 257.28,
          "fcff": 555.7248,
          "pv": 459.27669421487593
        },
        {
          "year": 3,
          "revenue": 10805.76,
          "ebit_margin": 0.18,
          "ebit": 1945.0367999999999,
          "tax": 408.45772799999986,
          "nopat": 1536.579072,
          "net_reinvestment": 324.1728,
          "fcff": 1212.406272,
          "pv": 910.8987768595039
        },
        {
          "year": 4,
          "revenue": 13399.1424,
          "ebit_margin": 0.23,
          "ebit": 3081.802752,
          "tax": 647.17857792,
          "nopat": 2434.62417408,
          "net_reinvestment": 401.974272,
          "fcff": 2032.6499020800002,
          "pv": 1388.327233167133
        },
        {
          "year": 5,
          "revenue": 16078.97088,
          "ebit_margin": 0.27,
          "ebit": 4341.3221376,
          "tax": 911.6776488959999,
          "nopat": 3429.644488704,
          "net_reinvestment": 482.3691264,
          "fcff": 2947.2753623040003,
          "pv": 1830.0261173814501
        },
        {
          "year": 6,
          "revenue": 18748.08004608,
          "ebit_margin": 0.27,
          "ebit": 5061.9816124416,
          "tax": 1063.016138612736,
          "nopat": 3998.965473828864,
          "net_reinvestment": 518.5076149429863,
          "fcff": 3480.4578588858776,
          "pv": 1964.6277259918659
        },
        {
          "year": 7,
          "revenue": 21222.82661216256,
          "ebit_margin": 0.27,
          "ebit": 5730.163185283892,
          "tax": 1203.334268909617,
          "nopat": 4526.828916374275,
          "net_reinvestment": 537.2164418660441,
          "fcff": 3989.6124745082307,
          "pv": 2047.302029888396
        },
        {
          "year": 8,
          "revenue": 23302.663620154493,
          "ebit_margin": 0.27,
          "ebit": 6291.719177441713,
          "tax": 1321.2610272627599,
          "nopat": 4970.4581501789535,
          "net_reinvestment": 535.2555254510573,
          "fcff": 4435.202624727896,
          "pv": 2069.054757161143
        },
        {
          "year": 9,
          "revenue": 24794.034091844384,
          "ebit_margin": 0.27,
          "ebit": 6694.389204797984,
          "tax": 1405.8217330075768,
          "nopat": 5288.567471790408,
          "net_reinvestment": 511.4088311881228,
          "fcff": 4777.158640602285,
          "pv": 2025.9816020669653
        },
        {
          "year": 10,
          "revenue": 25537.855114599715,
          "ebit_margin": 0.27,
          "ebit": 6895.2208809419235,
          "tax": 1447.996384997804,
          "nopat": 5447.22449594412,
          "net_reinvestment": 466.9049567952103,
          "fcff": 4980.319539148909,
          "pv": 1920.1287775336382
        }
      ],
      "terminal_value": 73281.84464747681,
      "terminal_pv": 28253.32344085211,
      "enterprise_value": 42974.9289732989,
      "equity_bridge": 4263.847,
      "equity_value": 47238.7759732989,
      "per_share": 46.13860103169806,
      "terminal_share": 0.6574373504702338,
      "required_exit_ev_sales": 25.890023786383495,
      "required_exit_ev_ebit": 95.88897698660553
    },
    {
      "label": "乐观",
      "rows": [
        {
          "year": 1,
          "revenue": 7200,
          "ebit_margin": 0.1,
          "ebit": 720.0,
          "tax": 151.19999999999993,
          "nopat": 568.8000000000001,
          "net_reinvestment": 180.0,
          "fcff": 388.80000000000007,
          "pv": 356.69724770642205
        },
        {
          "year": 2,
          "revenue": 9792.0,
          "ebit_margin": 0.18,
          "ebit": 1762.56,
          "tax": 370.1376,
          "nopat": 1392.4224,
          "net_reinvestment": 244.8,
          "fcff": 1147.6224,
          "pv": 965.9308139045534
        },
        {
          "year": 3,
          "revenue": 12925.44,
          "ebit_margin": 0.25,
          "ebit": 3231.36,
          "tax": 678.5855999999999,
          "nopat": 2552.7744000000002,
          "net_reinvestment": 323.136,
          "fcff": 2229.6384000000003,
          "pv": 1721.6899389897833
        },
        {
          "year": 4,
          "revenue": 16544.5632,
          "ebit_margin": 0.3,
          "ebit": 4963.36896,
          "tax": 1042.3074815999998,
          "nopat": 3921.0614784,
          "net_reinvestment": 413.61408000000006,
          "fcff": 3507.4473983999997,
          "pv": 2484.7641635115933
        },
        {
          "year": 5,
          "revenue": 20680.704,
          "ebit_margin": 0.34,
          "ebit": 7031.439360000001,
          "tax": 1476.6022655999996,
          "nopat": 5554.837094400002,
          "net_reinvestment": 517.0176,
          "fcff": 5037.8194944000015,
          "pv": 3274.237007916222
        },
        {
          "year": 6,
          "revenue": 24961.609728000003,
          "ebit_margin": 0.34,
          "ebit": 8486.947307520002,
          "tax": 1782.2589345792003,
          "nopat": 6704.688372940802,
          "net_reinvestment": 616.5642410864641,
          "fcff": 6088.124131854338,
          "pv": 3630.1495018096325
        },
        {
          "year": 7,
          "revenue": 29055.313723392002,
          "ebit_margin": 0.34,
          "ebit": 9878.806665953281,
          "tax": 2074.549399850189,
          "nopat": 7804.257266103093,
          "net_reinvestment": 708.9787101644883,
          "fcff": 7095.278555938605,
          "pv": 3881.360346800857
        },
        {
          "year": 8,
          "revenue": 32571.006683922435,
          "ebit_margin": 0.34,
          "ebit": 11074.142272533629,
          "tax": 2325.569877232061,
          "nopat": 8748.572395301568,
          "net_reinvestment": 785.0101175925566,
          "fcff": 7963.562277709011,
          "pv": 3996.643373256216
        },
        {
          "year": 9,
          "revenue": 35111.54520526838,
          "ebit_margin": 0.34,
          "ebit": 11937.925369791252,
          "tax": 2506.964327656162,
          "nopat": 9430.96104213509,
          "net_reinvestment": 835.7249989757981,
          "fcff": 8595.236043159292,
          "pv": 3957.4854457703086
        },
        {
          "year": 10,
          "revenue": 36340.44928745277,
          "ebit_margin": 0.34,
          "ebit": 12355.752757733942,
          "tax": 2594.708079124128,
          "nopat": 9761.044678609815,
          "net_reinvestment": 854.0914093783589,
          "fcff": 8906.953269231455,
          "pv": 3762.393317438253
        }
      ],
      "terminal_value": 167612.6660664465,
      "terminal_pv": 70801.4015190653,
      "enterprise_value": 98832.75267616914,
      "equity_bridge": 4263.847,
      "equity_value": 103096.59967616913,
      "per_share": 100.69551511817622,
      "terminal_share": 0.7163758936377086,
      "required_exit_ev_sales": 18.924979941128118,
      "required_exit_ev_ebit": 55.66170570920034
    }
  ],
  "sensitivity": [
    {
      "wacc": 0.09000000000000001,
      "g": 0.024999999999999998,
      "per_share": 51.936735999590965
    },
    {
      "wacc": 0.09000000000000001,
      "g": 0.03,
      "per_share": 54.72641052312723
    },
    {
      "wacc": 0.09000000000000001,
      "g": 0.034999999999999996,
      "per_share": 58.01622950537886
    },
    {
      "wacc": 0.1,
      "g": 0.024999999999999998,
      "per_share": 44.24309080733584
    },
    {
      "wacc": 0.1,
      "g": 0.03,
      "per_share": 46.13860103169806
    },
    {
      "wacc": 0.1,
      "g": 0.034999999999999996,
      "per_share": 48.32017827258728
    },
    {
      "wacc": 0.11,
      "g": 0.024999999999999998,
      "per_share": 38.41892359949126
    },
    {
      "wacc": 0.11,
      "g": 0.03,
      "per_share": 39.757544398409955
    },
    {
      "wacc": 0.11,
      "g": 0.034999999999999996,
      "per_share": 41.27018168981357
    }
  ],
  "share_sensitivity": [
    {
      "extra_shares_pct": 0,
      "base_per_share": 46.13860103169806
    },
    {
      "extra_shares_pct": 0.03,
      "base_per_share": 44.794758283202
    },
    {
      "extra_shares_pct": 0.1,
      "base_per_share": 41.94418275608914
    }
  ]
}
