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Closing/options not independently confirmed; keep July actuals separate.", "start_margin": -0.18, "capital_ratio": 3, "colors": [ "#12304b", "#228dc3", "#e8f3f8" ], "cases": [ { "name": "悲观", "growth": [ 0.24, 0.21, 0.18, 0.15, 0.12 ], "margin": 0.22, "wacc": 0.12, "g": 0.025 }, { "name": "基准", "growth": [ 0.34, 0.3, 0.27, 0.24, 0.21 ], "margin": 0.32, "wacc": 0.1, "g": 0.03 }, { "name": "乐观", "growth": [ 0.4, 0.37, 0.34, 0.31, 0.28 ], "margin": 0.4, "wacc": 0.085, "g": 0.035 } ], "convertibles": [ { "principal": 2038.2, "conversion": 157.5, "cap": 225 }, { "principal": 2000, "conversion": 500.38, "cap": 820.3 }, { "principal": 1750, "conversion": 483.98, "cap": 820.3 } ], "fcf": [ 778.9029999999999, 884.052, 1120.314 ], "fcf_less_sbc": [ -389.1120000000002, -595.2620000000001, -479.23299999999995 ], "ttm_fcf": 1195.274, "ttm_fcf_less_sbc": -446.64800000000014, "spot_equity_value": 120654.072, "spot_ev": 119344.895 }, "scenarios": [ { "name": "悲观", "assumptions": { "name": "悲观", 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0.43524450941173143, "sensitivity": [ { "margin_delta": -0.03, "wacc_delta": -0.01, "value": 148.24258421797833 }, { "margin_delta": -0.03, "wacc_delta": 0, "value": 119.30197569516426 }, { "margin_delta": -0.03, "wacc_delta": 0.01, "value": 98.03324216469044 }, { "margin_delta": 0, "wacc_delta": -0.01, "value": 166.63700507558644 }, { "margin_delta": 0, "wacc_delta": 0, "value": 134.47692905893567 }, { "margin_delta": 0, "wacc_delta": 0.01, "value": 110.82268944154697 }, { "margin_delta": 0.03, "wacc_delta": -0.01, "value": 185.01074930153442 }, { "margin_delta": 0.03, "wacc_delta": 0, "value": 149.6317645882802 }, { "margin_delta": 0.03, "wacc_delta": 0.01, "value": 123.59255772551569 } ], "limitations": [ "TTM fiscal-end baseline carried to valuation date; cash/debt/shares use latest disclosed dates, not live balances.", "Model is an assumption-based valuation range, not a price target or probability forecast.", "5-year reverse growth is held constant; years 6-10 fade linearly to terminal growth.", "SBC stays in forecast GAAP margins; share reserve covers existing awards only; no second deduction of future SBC.", "R&D remains an expense; maintenance capex equals depreciation in forecast; incremental reinvestment explicitly deducted." ] }