{ "method": "10-year FCFF DCF with terminal perpetuity; all money/shares in millions", "valuation_date": "2026-10-02", "tax_rate": 0.22, "inputs": { "name": "Datadog", "title": "从监控工具到安全平台，Datadog 能让客户多付多少钱？", "period": "2026 Q2", "fyend": "December 31", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "price": 276.46, "price_time": "2026-10-02T05:56:45-04:00", "years": [ "2023", "2024", "2025" ], "revenue": [ 2128.359, 2684.275, 3427.158 ], "op": [ -33.464, 54.284, -44.373 ], "net": [ 48.568, 183.746, 107.741 ], "cfo": [ 659.954, 870.603, 1050.135 ], "capex": [ 27.586, 34.719, 49.578 ], "software": [ 34.82, 60.781, 85.84 ], "sbc": [ 482.3, 570.336, 750.671 ], "ttm_revenue": 3966.725, "ttm_op": 16.329, "ttm_cfo": 1229.034, "ttm_capex": 46.925, "ttm_software": 109.34, "ttm_sbc": 823.037, "shares": 359.075024, "share_date": "2026-07-31", "reserve": 0.05, "cash": 4985.438, "debt": 1000, "other_assets": 0, "post_adjust": 0, "adjust_note": "Includes both Class A and B shares. 2029 notes kept as debt, not simultaneously added as shares; capped-call protection to $322.38 offsets spread dilution subject to contract and counterparty risk. Existing equity-award reserve modeled at 5%.", "start_margin": 0.01, "capital_ratio": 3, "colors": [ "#302547", "#8060c0", "#f0edf7" ], "cases": [ { "name": "悲观", "growth": [ 0.2, 0.18, 0.16, 0.14, 0.12 ], "margin": 0.22, "wacc": 0.12, "g": 0.025 }, { "name": "基准", "growth": [ 0.29, 0.26, 0.23, 0.21, 0.19 ], "margin": 0.32, "wacc": 0.1, "g": 0.03 }, { "name": "乐观", "growth": [ 0.36, 0.33, 0.3, 0.27, 0.24 ], "margin": 0.42, "wacc": 0.085, "g": 0.035 } ], "convertibles": [ { "principal": 1000, "conversion": 217.6, "cap": 322.38 } ], "fcf": [ 597.5479999999999, 775.103, 914.717 ], "fcf_less_sbc": [ 115.24799999999988, 204.76699999999994, 164.04599999999994 ], "ttm_fcf": 1072.7690000000002, "ttm_fcf_less_sbc": 249.7320000000002, "spot_equity_value": 99269.88113503999, "spot_ev": 95284.44313504 }, "scenarios": [ { "name": "悲观", "assumptions": { "name": "悲观", "growth": [ 0.2, 0.18, 0.16, 0.14, 0.12 ], "margin": 0.22, "wacc": 0.12, "g": 0.025 }, "years": [ { "year": 1, "growth": 0.2, 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0.42, "ebit": 10655.509686070835, "tax": 2344.2121309355834, "reinvestment": 285.9771789068921, "fcff": 8025.320376228358, "pv": 3549.4821534042126 } ], "terminal_revenue": 26258.22029781741, "terminal_fcff": 8306.20658939635, "terminal_value": 166124.13178792698, "pv_explicit": 17890.564248943254, "pv_terminal": 73474.28057546719, "terminal_fraction": 0.8041854688931368, "enterprise_value": 91364.84482441044, "equity_bridge": 3985.438, "equity_value": 95350.28282441043, "model_shares": 377.0287752, "convertible_residual_intrinsic": 0.0, "value_per_share": 252.89921909496323, "vs_reference": -0.08522310969050406 } ], "reverse_constant_first_five_year_growth": 0.44026922207238506, "sensitivity": [ { "margin_delta": -0.03, "wacc_delta": -0.01, "value": 106.57740980573092 }, { "margin_delta": -0.03, "wacc_delta": 0, "value": 88.92420277119102 }, { "margin_delta": -0.03, "wacc_delta": 0.01, "value": 75.8899912835539 }, { "margin_delta": 0, "wacc_delta": -0.01, "value": 117.63652313155643 }, { "margin_delta": 0, "wacc_delta": 0, "value": 98.04924090544772 }, { "margin_delta": 0, "wacc_delta": 0.01, "value": 83.5816871668792 }, { "margin_delta": 0.03, "wacc_delta": -0.01, "value": 128.69563645738194 }, { "margin_delta": 0.03, "wacc_delta": 0, "value": 107.1742790397044 }, { "margin_delta": 0.03, "wacc_delta": 0.01, "value": 91.27338305020447 } ], "limitations": [ "TTM fiscal-end baseline carried to valuation date; cash/debt/shares use latest disclosed dates, not live balances.", "Model is an assumption-based valuation range, not a price target or probability forecast.", "5-year reverse growth is held constant; years 6-10 fade linearly to terminal growth.", "SBC stays in forecast GAAP margins; share reserve covers existing awards only; no second deduction of future SBC.", "R&D remains an expense; maintenance capex equals depreciation in forecast; incremental reinvestment explicitly deducted." ] }